Can we try to "Make America Good Again"?

Far be it from me to lay claim to any special abilities to see into or predict the future. It's not like it was difficult to anticipate events of the past week (or indeed, all of the vitriol and atrocities spoken and committed by Trump supporters over the past 2 years).  Anyone with a pulse and two functioning brain cells could have foreseen this 36 months ago at the start of the campaign season, could have offered guarantees of the outcome if they'd only been paying attention and applied the smallest inkling of critical thought to the last presidential election. What we've seen in the last week, is the culmination of all that #DonTheCon campaigned for--to make anger, ignorance, and lies in defense of stupid white men the law of the land. Yep, that was the entire platform.

#MAGA "Morons are Governing America."

As I said, I can't claim to have any special skill in prognostication, but I did write about this way back in June 2018 HERE, about how our current #NotMyPresident "leader" and the GOP are creating homegrown terrorists. And HERE writing about the beginning of the end of the US as a beacon of freedom.

I just didn't go far enough in shouting out a warning about what was coming. Perhaps I was in denial--we'd never let the racism, hatred, bigotry, and discrimination get so bad in this country that we'd ever again see two black people hunted down and killed, as they'd been back in the civil rights era, would we? No! We'd never sit idly by while some maniac wound up his sycophants to such rabid heights that they'd attempt to murder political opponents. Of course not! Not in the USA. That sort of nonsense happens in third world countries, banana republicans, and Russia, but never here. And certainly, as the champions of freedom around the world, the country that charged in and liberated the concentration camps, freeing the Jews, gays, political dissidents, academics, and all the other thinking people that Hitler had to suppress and murder so he could continue to spread his evil and lies, we would NEVER allow persecution like that in our country; never allow attacks on and the murder of Jews in Synagogue. Not here.

Until now. Until the past 3 years---starting with people accepting this insane man as a viable candidate to the highest office in the land. Our slide down this slippery slope into the hell our country began with people making excuses. "Give him a chance." Despite there being zero evidence that he deserved a chance as he belligerently railed against and made fun of liberals, the media, the disabled, women and anyone and everyone not an old, white, conservative male. Those still holding out any defense of him by the time the election rolled around were delusional. There was no other possible reason to continue supporting him after the vile campaign he ran. My favorite delusion comes from the "christian" Right (aka fascists): "I don't like the man he is, but I like his policies." WHAT?!? His policies are every.single.thing.Christ.Opposed. So, if that's your reason for supporting him, congratulations. You failed Sunday School. You failed Christianity 101. You failed at being a good human being. Stop deluding yourself. God knows you aren't fooling her or anyone else.

But some still did, and when he won, they offered, "The office will change him, he'll rise to the dignity of the position." Within days, he shouted down reporters doing their jobs, urged his crazy followers to attack those reporters (and indeed, anyone who questioned his propaganda), and blathered on about "fake news" each of the many times he was caught in a lie. By November 15, it was clear to everyone (again, everyone with the capacity for thought) that no, he isn't going to rise to the expectations of the office. He's lowering the bar for our country and the position to the least common denominator--his supporters.

As if "Pizza Gate" wasn't ridiculous and pitiable enough for every single person in the world to see what a lunatic was in that office. Didn't we all laugh and say, "no one could possibly be stupid enough to believe that!" But his followers did. One even charged in, single-handedly, rifle at the ready, to save the day. What sane person could believe such a preposterous and obvious fiction, much less act on it?

Words to live by.

And yet, here we are. It's difficult to fathom how far we've sunk so quickly. Did the majority of the German citizenry feel like this in 1933? Had they spent the previous few years thinking "He'll change," or "Someone will do something about this"? Did they feel terror when they knew Hitler's  claim that communists were behind the explosion at the Reichstag was false? That it was just a means to an end, allowing him to easily manipulate a willing legislature--through fear and promises of "greatness again"--into turn over power to him and the Nazi party? Did they feel a terror similar to what so many of us here and now feel when similar claims--"it was the liberals," "it's the democrats"--echo from the mouths of lunatics like Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, and anyone at Fox News? They spew their blatant lies, misinformation, and innuendo, casting blame and aspersions on those of us who are mortified by these events, those who are targeted by the GOP's new brand of "nationalist" nuts, decrying as victims the criminals behind these attacks.

Let me state this in no uncertain terms: every single one of these acts was perpetrated by a Trump supporter, by "nationalists" like Trump proudly proclaimed himself to be just a week ago. That's what the EVIDENCE and FACTS--and even the words of the perpetrators themselves show. Yet, there are those who will still believe the conspiracy theories spewed by the propaganda machine that the White House has become because it feeds their anger and justifies their violence and hatred of their fellow human beings.

Will we, the people, act in time--in mere DAYS--to save our country from them?

I certainly hope so.

Until then...as I've asked in astonishment many times before: How can anyone still support or defend this immoral, lying narcissistic lunatic? While each time I've asked in the past, I've been amazed and disgusted to hear people still suggesting he and his supporters deserve the benefit of the doubt, this time, there is no doubt. If you still support this man, this party, and this direction for our country, you are not a good person. You are an evil, mean, despicable person with a black heart and soul. You can no longer hide behind the shield of "voting for my beliefs." Your beliefs are clear and what you believe in is being a spiteful, violent bigot. Your vote shows what you believe, and it's ugly. It's shameful.

I will never again underestimate the depths of ignorance and hatred rampant in this country.

Perhaps in the upcoming midterm election and in the next presidential election, we should elect a leader who wants to "Make America Think Again." I'd even he happy with someone who wants to make America GOOD. It would be lovely if we could live the way we perceive ourselves to be, as we break our own arms patting ourselves on the backs for being "God-fearing" and a "Christian" nation. How about we get back to just not going out of our way to hurt anyone and every who doesn't look like us? How about we at least stop proudly striving to be idiots?

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Wow. Just wow. Yesterday, Kellyanne Conway disclosed to the world news of the "Bowling Green Massacre."

And some people believed her.

I guess it's no surprise in the current political climate (where half the country think that "gaslighting" refers to some romantic mood set by this administration) that making up what are easily debunked stories is considered acceptable for "news."

When we have the need for articles with headlines like this:

10 Journalism Brands Where You Find Real Facts Rather than Alternative Facts

you know we've gone down the rabbit hole into a world turned upside down. Since when have we had to use the word REAL in front of the word facts? Isn't that redundant? If a story isn't real, it's fiction.

How has the term "alt-facts" become a thing? If facts aren't real, they aren't facts. As any writer knows, words have specific meanings, and those meanings have power. Choose and wield your words as you would a surgical instrument--for precision. A scalpel, not a mallet. Know and use the correct instrument. The correct, precise word for alternative facts is LIES. 

While the GOP, and particularly this administration, are masters in the art of lying, and their followers are happy to be led down that garden path, I blame liberals for starting us down that path with the oh-so-trite and misleading axiom that "perception is reality."

Not when your perception is incorrect it's not. Then, it's a misperception. 

This ridiculous and patently false phrase became quite de rigueur in the late 90s and early 00s. It's echoes can still be heard in many halls and offices where agencies are trying to accomplish goals related to complex scientific ideas that a vast majority of the population don't have the educational or intellectual foundation to fully grasp. (Think climate change communication, think astrophysics, think stem cell research.)

This is not to say the audiences are stupid, but they didn't get sufficient science education at the requisite level to understand all the many disciplines and concepts at play. Just because you took A & P in college doesn't make you a doctor. A medical doctor spent many years learning all she needed to know to get that title. Similarly, understanding the natural world means spending years learning the many and complex concepts, strategies, and processes involved. That 100-level science class that you may, possibly--or not--have had as a freshman in college (and may or may not remember at all) doesn't begin to provide a complete picture on which it build an accurate framework, nor does it make you an "expert."

For the layman, actual, factual information and explanations of any specialized field can sound like gobbledy-gook. The easy, comforting sound bite is easier to digest. Filled with misperceptions, these at least give people something to latch onto. The easier they are to understand, the more comforting they are, the better.

Although the thinking behind "perception is reality" as applied to learning is solid---before we can learn new information, our misconceptions must be identified and addressed, then those can be corrected with factual information--what's happened is we've been too accommodating of the misperceptions. We did a great job of recognizing the misperceptions, but stopped short of correcting them. We bastardized "Respect other people's opinions" into accepting that all opinions are just as valid as facts. We let the mantra that "not everyone has to think the same," extrapolate into "being wrong about facts is just as valid as the facts themselves."

Those cliches about the validity of opinions and varied views are only true when we're talking about subjective topics like beliefs, and phenomenon that aren't subject to scientific evaluation to determine whether or not they're factual. Your taste and preference in food, art, music, your religious beliefs--those are subjective. They depend on individual perception and circumstance: how, when, and where you were raised, what you're accustomed to. There is no right or wrong, just different.

Scientific facts aren't that. They are objective and evidence-based. They are built on observation, measurement, and verification. The scientific method starts with a hypothesis (perception), but then it goes further and validates that hypothesis, or corrects it, through experimentation and evidence. Misperceptions are identified, addressed, and corrected through the scientific method. Repeat after me:

MISPERCEPTION IS NOT REALITY. IT IS WRONG.

Now go learn the facts. If the subject matter is too complex, find someone who really is an expert in that field to help you understand it. HINT: Politicians are not experts in any field other than getting re-elected.

How do you--or I, or anyone--keep from getting caught up in the hysteria of "alt facts," aka lies and damn lies, flooding social media and even some (not particularly credible) alt-news sources? Here are few ideas:

1.   

Follow only credible news sources. Here's that list of 10 good places to start. Don't believe these? You might want to subscribe to Stars and Stripes, the US Military news source. Each year, they get blasted by half their readers for having a left bias, and the other half for having a right bias. Pretty strong evidence they're neutral. They also select a panel, balanced between newspaper editors and publishers considered left- and right-leaning, to evaluate a random selection of news stories they published in the past year and rate the "slant." Again, they typically come out in the center.

2.  

Check out the Poynter Institute's many online courses on news- and media- literacy designed to help you understand and evaluate news stories and news sources to determine their credibility. They also offer a number of online courses in fact-checking.

Finally, since the title of this blog is lies, damn lies, and statistics, let me address that last one: the dreaded "s-word." Many people have learned nothing more about statistics than this quaint phrase, often attributed incorrectly to Mark Twain. The actual, verifiable source (and who Mark Twain himself credited as such) is British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. 

Image from http://likesuccess.com/img14429

Statistics is nothing more than math. It's a way to evaluate your numbers--the data you've gathered--to determine if they're meaningful and accurate, or if the results are random and arbitrary. Our brains like to put order on chaos. We see patterns when they may not exist. Statistics gives us a way to check our own biases and determine if the imposed and supposed pattern actually exists. 

Can statistics be used to lie? Not really. They can, however, be used to confound those who are ignorant of how statistics work. One oft-seen example is when news sources report on poll results. Turn to one channel and you'll hear, "Polls show that 24 percent of people support the president's actions." Yeah! Look at that! Clearly, he's doing the right thing. 

At least, that's what it may seems like to someone who doesn't actually understand math and statistics. Turn the channel and you hear the same story, reporting the same statistic: Seventy-six percent of the people polled oppose whatever that action is.

Spin? Yes and no. It depends on if you know your numbers. As I tell my students, statistics can only be used to lie to those who don't know statistics. 

3. 

If you don't want to be lied to, learn statistics.